Is E3 Hype Justified? Let the Maths Speak

Don’t give in to the hype? After E3 2019 it seems nearly impossible. But should we really be so skeptical about what we saw? We checked how the titles we got hyped for in the past turned out. Then we calculated the percentage of the hyped games that became beloved hits.

Rules

• We needed a neutral criterion for the selection of games to analyze, so we assumed that “the most hyped titles” were the ones to grab a Game Critic Award. The award is given by a jury of 50 gaming outlets from all over the world.
• We consider a game to be a mega hit and truly worth the hype if its metascore is at least 85%. Don’t get us wrong – games below 85 are still very, very good, but perhaps not groundbreaking, timeless achievements.
• We analyzed the most hyped E3 games from five consecutive years: 2013-2017. Why not 2018? Because some games showcased during E3 2018 haven’t been released yet, or not enough time has passed to properly judge their impact.
• If a game was awarded more than once within one year, it still appears only once on our list. However, if a game was awarded in different years, it is repeated.
• We skipped mobile games, hardware and other categories that aren’t exactly within our area of interest.
• We mention which games managed to make a turnaround after an unfavorable release. They may be good today, but their scores are eternally tainted because of the negative initial reception. Yes, we’re looking at you, No Man’s Sky.
• In case of multiplatform games we consider their PC scores. If there’s no PC score available, we count the platform the game scored the highest on.
• Finally, we also acknowledge if there was a big discrepancy between the critic score and the user score (more than 10 percentage points).

Number Crunching

You can see our calculations below or skip these paragraphs to the conclusion.

E3 2017

1. Super Mario Odyssey: 97
2. Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 85
3. Destiny 2: 83, user score: 3.7
4. Wolfenstein 2: The New Colossus: 86, user score: 6.7
5. Ni No Kuni 2: 81, user score: 6.9
6. Dragon Ball FighterZ: 85
7. Forza Motorsport 7: 82, user score: 4.3
8. Fifa 18: 81, user score: 2.7
9. Battlefront 2: 65, user score: 1.1; improved after release
10. Hidden Agenda: 66
11. Lone Echo: 89, user score: 7.8

 

Average metascore: 82

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 45%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 27%

 

E3 2016

1. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild: 97, user score: 8.5
2. Horizon: Zero Dawn: 89
3. Civilization VI: 88, user score: 7.0
4. Batman: Arkham VR: 74
5. Battlefield 1: 88, user score: 7.1
6. Final Fantasy XV: 85
7. Injustice 2: 86
8. Forza Horizon 3: 86, user score: 6.9
9. Steep: 72
10. Skylanders: Imaginators: 79, user score: 5.3
11. Titanfall 2: 86
12. Inside: 87

 

Average metascore: 85

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 75%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 50%

 

E3 2015

1. Fallout 4: 84, user score: 5.5
2. Horizon Zero Dawn: 89
3. Uncharted 4: 93
4. Star Wars Battlefront: 72, user score: 3.5, improved after release
5. Need for Speed: 68
6. Fifa 16: 81, user score: 4.5
7. Super Mario Maker: 88
8. No Man’s Sky: 61, user score: 2.9; improved after release

 

Average metascore: 79

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 37%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 37%

 

E3 2014

1. Evolve: 77, user score: 4.3
2. No Man’s Sky: 61, user score: 2.9; improved after release
3. Rainbow Six: Siege: 79, improved after release
4. Batman: Arkham Knight: 70, user score: 3.0; improved after release
5. Dragon Age: Inquisition: 85, user score: 5.9
6. The Crew: 71, user score: 6.3
7. NHL 15: 60, user score: 3.7
8. Civilization: Beyond Earth: 81, user score: 5.5
9. Super Mario Maker: 88

 

Average metascore: 75

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 22%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 0%

 

E2 2013

1. Titanfall: 86, user score: 6.2
2. Watch Dogs: 77, user score: 4.8
3. The Elder Scrolls Online: 71, user score: 5.8, improved after release
4. Need for Speed: Rivals: 76, user score: 3.5
5. NHL 14: 81, user score: 6.0
6. Total War: Rome II: 76, user score: 4.2
7. Fantasia: Music Evolved: 77
8. Transistor: 83

 

Average metascore: 78

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 12%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 0%’

 

OVERALL

Average metascore: 80

Percentage of mega hits (metascore 85 or higher): 38%

Percentage of mega hits when excluding low user score: 22%

 

So what does it mean?

 

22% to 38% of games met our requirement of being a mega hit, definitely worth the hype. This doesn’t look very good, does it? Actually, it does!

Let’s consider one thing: we purposefully set extremely demanding conditions.

Games that scored 85 or more are the cream of the crop, the absolute best of the best. And among the most awaited E3 titles, one in three (or one in five, if we consider user scores) proved to be a masterpiece. In the best year, three out of four (!) games we waited for turned out legendary!

And the rest? Even in the worst years the average metascore was in the green spectrum, meaning that when the games aren’t superb, they’re at least good.

And what about such titles as Rainbow Six: Siege, No Man’s Sky or The Elder Scrolls Online? Sure, they had a rocky release, but today they are some of the most recognized games in their respective genres, with a rock solid fanbase.

If we are to believe the numbers, that would mean that between Cyberpunk 2077, Breath of the Wild 2, Halo Infinite, Gears of War 5, Borderlands 3, The Outer Worlds, Doom Eternal, Final Fantasy VII Remake and Dying Light 2, we’ll have at least two or three — and even up to seven — incredible, timeless titles. And at least one will later be patched and get a legendary status.

So yeah, we’re hyped. Are you?

 

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